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Explainers

What a review trigger is, and why we publish one before entry

The written condition, fixed in advance, that forces a position to be looked at again — good news or bad.

A review trigger is a condition, written down before a position is opened, whose occurrence obliges the analyst to publish a fresh note. Not to sell — to look again, in public.

Why before, and not after

Because afterwards you will not do it honestly. Once a position is open and losing, the mind supplies reasons. A trigger fixed in advance removes the discretion at precisely the moment discretion is least trustworthy.

What makes a good one

It has to be observable and it has to be about the business. "The gross margin falls below 26% for two consecutive quarters" is a trigger. "The stock falls 20%" is not — a price fall is not information about the company, it is information about the market's mood, and reacting to it mechanically is how good ideas get sold at the bottom.

Good triggers usually attach to the thing the thesis actually depends on: a contract renewal, a capacity utilisation rate, a receivables balance, a regulatory decision, a promoter holding.

What happens when it fires

A note is published saying so. Sometimes the conclusion is that the thesis is intact and the trigger was noise; that note gets published too. A trigger that only ever produces exits is a stop-loss with better manners.

This is not a stop-loss and not a price target. Neither of those appears anywhere on this site. A review trigger is a condition for re-examining a written argument, which is a different object from a level at which to transact.


Why this explainer exists. Every open idea carries one. It is the third of the three commitments.

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